How Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.